Initial commit: Oil Trading Bot (MT5, WTI)

Headless FastAPI-Backend (server.py + core/engine.py) mit Mobile-PWA (web/), Strategie-/Backtest-Suite und Doku. Secrets, DB, Logs und Laufzeit-State sind via .gitignore ausgeschlossen; Config-Vorlage: oil_widget_config.ini.example. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-24 08:29:23 +02:00
commit 75d28827e8
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+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Gezielter Test: Konfidenz-STRAFE wenn der M30/H1-Regressionswinkel scharf GEGEN
+die Signalrichtung steht (= Markt dreht, aber EMA lagt → falsche 'Konfluenz').
+Borderline-Signale fallen dann unter das 55%-Gate (→WARTEN). Kein Pauschal-Filter.
+
+Frage: Sind die so ENTFERNTEN Signale netto negativ (gut weg) und bleibt der
+Gesamtertrag der behaltenen ≥ Baseline? Exit-Sim = SL 2,0×ATR + Trailing 1,5 (live).
+"""
+import sys, bisect
+import MetaTrader5 as mt5
+from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle
+from core.wave_rec import (WaveRecommender, _atr, _ema_last, _EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW,
+                           _N_BARS, _HTF_DEADBAND, _ANGLE_LR, _MIN_CONF)
+
+_MAXH=288; _ATRMIN=0.12
+def _ema_series(v,p):
+    k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0]
+    for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e)
+    return o
+def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14):
+    t=[0.0]
+    for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1])))
+    return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))]
+def sim(entry,d,atr,H,L,C,j0, sl_atr=2.0, trail=1.5, trail_on=0.3, be_on=1.0):
+    eff=entry-d*sl_atr*atr; hw=entry
+    end=min(j0+_MAXH,len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end]
+    for j in range(j0,end+1):
+        hi,lo=H[j],L[j]
+        if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): exit_px=eff; break
+        hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo)
+        prof=(C[j]-entry)*d
+        if prof>=trail_on*atr:
+            cand=hw-d*trail*atr
+            if prof>=be_on*atr: cand=max(cand,entry) if d>0 else min(cand,entry)
+            eff=max(eff,cand) if d>0 else min(eff,cand)
+    return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr
+def srep(name,r):
+    if not r: print(f"  {name:<34} -"); return
+    n=len(r); w=sum(1 for x in r if x>0)
+    print(f"  {name:<34} n={n:>5} Treffer={100*w/n:>3.0f}% ØR={sum(r)/n:+.3f} ΣR={sum(r):+.0f}")
+
+def main():
+    n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 40000
+    mt5.initialize()
+    sym=None
+    for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"):
+        if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break
+    bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,n+_N_BARS+_MAXH+5)
+    m30=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M30,0,n//6+500)
+    h1=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_H1,0,n//12+500)
+    mt5.shutdown()
+    T=[int(b["time"]) for b in bars]; H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars]
+    L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars]; C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars]
+    mT=[int(b["time"]) for b in m30]; mc=[float(b["close"]) for b in m30]
+    mh=[float(b["high"]) for b in m30]; ml=[float(b["low"]) for b in m30]
+    mEf=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_FAST); mEs=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_SLOW); mA=_atr_series(mh,ml,mc)
+    hT=[int(b["time"]) for b in h1]; hc=[float(b["close"]) for b in h1]
+    def m30sign(ts):
+        idx=bisect.bisect_right(mT,ts)-1
+        if idx<_EMA_SLOW or mA[idx] is None or mA[idx]<=0: return 0
+        dd=mEf[idx]-mEs[idx]
+        return 0 if abs(dd)<_HTF_DEADBAND*mA[idx] else (1 if dd>0 else -1)
+    def ang_at(ts,TT,CC):
+        idx=bisect.bisect_right(TT,ts)-1
+        if idx<_ANGLE_LR+2: return 90.0
+        return calc_trend_angle(CC[idx-_ANGLE_LR-1:idx+1],_ANGLE_LR)
+    class _TU:
+        def snapshot(self): return {"intervals": {}}
+    w=WaveRecommender(_TU(), mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5)
+    sigs=[]  # (i,d,atr,conf,R,m30dev,h1dev)
+    for i in range(_N_BARS, len(C)-_MAXH-1):
+        wc=C[i-_N_BARS:i]; wh=H[i-_N_BARS:i]; wl=L[i-_N_BARS:i]
+        atr=_atr(wh,wl,wc)
+        if not atr or atr<=0: continue
+        ef=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_FAST); es=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_SLOW)
+        a5=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR)
+        rec,_=w._build(ef,es,C[i-1],atr,"M5",0,htf_trend=m30sign(T[i]),
+                       h1_trend=0,angle=a5)
+        if rec["signal"]=="WARTEN": continue
+        d=1 if rec["signal"]=="LONG" else -1
+        atr=max(atr,_ATRMIN)
+        R=sim(C[i],d,atr,H,L,C,i+1)
+        sigs.append((d,rec["conf_pct"],R,ang_at(T[i],mT,mc)-90.0,ang_at(T[i],hT,hc)-90.0))
+
+    base=[R for (_,_,R,_,_) in sigs]
+    print("="*80)
+    print(f"  Konfluenz-Winkel-Strafe — {sym} M5  Signale={len(sigs)}  Exit SL2.0+Trail1.5")
+    print("="*80)
+    srep("BASELINE (alle Signale)", base)
+    print("  (Strafe greift, wenn M30- ODER H1-Winkel um >T gegen die Richtung steht)\n")
+    for T_ in (10, 20, 40):
+        def opp(d,m,h): return ((d<0 and (m>T_ or h>T_)) or (d>0 and (m<-T_ or h<-T_)))
+        for P in (15, 25):
+            kept=[]; removed=[]
+            for (d,conf,R,m,h) in sigs:
+                if opp(d,m,h) and (conf - P) < _MIN_CONF:
+                    removed.append(R)
+                else:
+                    kept.append(R)
+            print(f"T={T_}° Strafe={P}:")
+            srep("  entfernt (→WARTEN)", removed)
+            srep("  behalten (gehandelt)", kept)
+            db=sum(kept)-sum(base)
+            print(f"     Δ Gesamtertrag vs Baseline: {db:+.0f} R  ({'BESSER' if db>0 else 'schlechter'})"
+                  f"  · behalten {len(kept)}/{len(sigs)}\n")
+
+if __name__=="__main__":
+    main()