#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Misst antizyklische BOUNCE-Einstiege (gegen die EMA) bei verschiedenen Überdehnungs-Schwellen + echter Exit-Sim (SL fix 2,0×ATR + Trailing-TP). Bounce-LONG : Kurs ueberverkauft (stretch <= -TH unter EMA50) UND Winkel gedreht (Momentum dreht hoch) -> LONG. Bounce-SHORT : stretch >= +TH ueber EMA50 UND Winkel dreht runter -> SHORT. Frage: Bei welcher Schwelle TH traegt der Bounce noch? (Tiefer = mehr Bounces erwischt, wie der verpasste +1,3-Move; zu tief = Edge kippt.) Vergleich gegen den reinen Trend-Edge (~+0,20 R) als Benchmark. """ import sys import MetaTrader5 as mt5 from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle from core.wave_rec import (_atr, _ema_last, _EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW, _N_BARS, _ANGLE_LR, _ANGLE_DEAD) _MAXH=240; _TRAILON=0.3; _TPTRAIL=0.5; _ATRMIN=0.12; _SL_ATR=2.0 def _ema_series(v,p): k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0] for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e) return o def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14): t=[0.0] for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1]))) return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))] def simulate(entry,d,atr,sl,H,L,C,j0): eff=sl; hw=entry; trail=False end=min(j0+_MAXH,len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end] for j in range(j0,end+1): hi,lo=H[j],L[j] if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): return (eff-entry)*d/atr hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo) if (C[j]-entry)*d>=_TRAILON*atr: trail=True if trail: lock=hw-d*_TPTRAIL*atr eff=max(eff,lock) if d>0 else min(eff,lock) return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr def stats(Rs): if not Rs: return " -" n=len(Rs); w=sum(1 for r in Rs if r>0) g=sum(r for r in Rs if r>0); ls=-sum(r for r in Rs if r<0) pf=g/ls if ls>0 else 99.9 return f"n={n:>4} Treffer={100*w/n:>3.0f}% Ø-R={sum(Rs)/n:+.3f} PF={pf:>4.2f} Worst={min(Rs):+.2f} ΣR={sum(Rs):+.0f}" def main(): n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 40000 mt5.initialize() sym=None for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"): if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,n+_N_BARS+_MAXH+5) mt5.shutdown() H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars]; L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars]; C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars] ES=_ema_series(C,_EMA_SLOW); AT=_atr_series(H,L,C) print("="*92) print(f" Bounce-Einstieg (antizyklisch) — {sym} M5 Exit: SL {_SL_ATR}×ATR + Trailing-TP pessimistisch") print(f" Benchmark Trend-Edge ≈ +0,20 R (backtest_rev_exit/exit). Reversal-Schwelle aktuell 3,5×ATR.") print("="*92) for TH in (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5): with_ang=[]; no_ang=[] for i in range(_N_BARS, len(C)-_MAXH-1): atr=AT[i] if not atr or atr<=0: continue atr=max(atr,_ATRMIN); es=ES[i] stretch=(C[i]-es)/atr ang=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR); ad=ang-90.0 # Bounce-LONG: ueberverkauft; Bounce-SHORT: ueberkauft for d,cond_stretch,cond_ang in ((1, stretch<=-TH, ad>=_ANGLE_DEAD), (-1, stretch>=TH, ad<=-_ANGLE_DEAD)): if not cond_stretch: continue R=simulate(C[i],d,atr,C[i]-d*_SL_ATR*atr,H,L,C,i+1) no_ang.append(R) # nur Überdehnung if cond_ang: with_ang.append(R) # + Winkel gedreht (echtes Bounce-Signal) print(f"\nSchwelle TH={TH}×ATR:") print(f" nur überdehnt {stats(no_ang)}") print(f" + Winkel gedreht (BOUNCE) {stats(with_ang)}") if __name__=="__main__": main()