#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Bringt es Edge, den REVERSAL-Einstieg (antizyklischer Bounce: überdehnt + Winkel gedreht) zu VERWERFEN, wenn der H1-Trend klar DAGEGEN steht? Teilt alle Reversal-Signale nach H1-Ausrichtung (mit/gegen/flach zur Signalrichtung) und misst je Bucket die echte Exit-R (SL 2×ATR + Trailing-TP). Wenn 'gegen' klar schlechter/negativ ist → Veto lohnt. """ import sys, bisect import MetaTrader5 as mt5 from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle from core.wave_rec import (_atr, _ema_last, _EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW, _N_BARS, _ANGLE_LR, _ANGLE_DEAD, _HTF_DEADBAND) _MAXH=240; _TRAILON=0.3; _TPTRAIL=0.5; _ATRMIN=0.12; _SL_ATR=2.0 def _ema_series(v,p): k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0] for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e) return o def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14): t=[0.0] for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1]))) return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))] def simulate(entry,d,atr,sl,H,L,C,j0): eff=sl; hw=entry; trail=False end=min(j0+_MAXH,len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end] for j in range(j0,end+1): hi,lo=H[j],L[j] if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): return (eff-entry)*d/atr hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo) if (C[j]-entry)*d>=_TRAILON*atr: trail=True if trail: lock=hw-d*_TPTRAIL*atr eff=max(eff,lock) if d>0 else min(eff,lock) return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr def stats(Rs): if not Rs: return " -" n=len(Rs); w=sum(1 for r in Rs if r>0) g=sum(r for r in Rs if r>0); ls=-sum(r for r in Rs if r<0) pf=g/ls if ls>0 else 99.9 return f"n={n:>4} Treffer={100*w/n:>3.0f}% Ø-R={sum(Rs)/n:+.3f} PF={pf:>4.2f} Worst={min(Rs):+.2f} ΣR={sum(Rs):+.0f}" def main(): n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 40000 mt5.initialize() sym=None for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"): if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,n+_N_BARS+_MAXH+5) h1=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_H1,0,20000) mt5.shutdown() H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars]; L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars]; C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars] T=[int(b["time"]) for b in bars] ES=_ema_series(C,_EMA_SLOW); AT=_atr_series(H,L,C) # H1-Regime hT=[int(b["time"]) for b in h1]; hc=[float(b["close"]) for b in h1] hh=[float(b["high"]) for b in h1]; hl=[float(b["low"]) for b in h1] hEf=_ema_series(hc,_EMA_FAST); hEs=_ema_series(hc,_EMA_SLOW); hA=_atr_series(hh,hl,hc) def h1_sign(ts): idx=bisect.bisect_right(hT,ts)-1 if idx<_EMA_SLOW or hA[idx] is None or hA[idx]<=0: return 0 dd=hEf[idx]-hEs[idx] return 0 if abs(dd)<_HTF_DEADBAND*hA[idx] else (1 if dd>0 else -1) print("="*92) print(f" Reversal-Einstieg nach H1-Ausrichtung — {sym} M5 Exit: SL {_SL_ATR}×ATR + Trailing-TP") print(" Frage: sind 'gegen H1' laufende Reversals schlechter (→ Veto lohnt)?") print("="*92) for TH in (3.0, 3.5): B={"mit":[], "gegen":[], "flach":[], "alle":[]} for i in range(_N_BARS, len(C)-_MAXH-1): atr=AT[i] if not atr or atr<=0: continue atr=max(atr,_ATRMIN); es=ES[i] stretch=(C[i]-es)/atr ang=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR); ad=ang-90.0 for d,cs,ca in ((1, stretch<=-TH, ad>=_ANGLE_DEAD), (-1, stretch>=TH, ad<=-_ANGLE_DEAD)): if not (cs and ca): continue # echtes Reversal-Signal (überdehnt+Winkel) R=simulate(C[i],d,atr,C[i]-d*_SL_ATR*atr,H,L,C,i+1) reg=h1_sign(T[i]) cls="mit" if reg==d else "gegen" if reg==-d else "flach" B[cls].append(R); B["alle"].append(R) print(f"\nReversal-Schwelle TH={TH}×ATR:") for cls in ("alle","mit","gegen","flach"): print(f" {cls:<6} {stats(B[cls])}") veto=[r for c in ("mit","flach") for r in B[c]] print(f" → mit Veto (gegen verworfen): {stats(veto)} [ohne Veto = 'alle']") print("\n 'gegen' = H1-Trend GEGEN das Reversal (Gegen-Trend-Fade) — Kandidat fürs Veto") if __name__=="__main__": main()