#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Schlüssel-Messungen mit ECHTEN Kosten nachgerechnet (Track B): Kosten je Trade = Bar-`spread`(Signal-Bar) / ATR(Signal-Bar) in R (Roundtrip = 1×Spread; Kommission laut DB ~0). Bisher pauschal 0,1×ATR — real Ø 0,265, nachts bis 0,5. (1) Netto-R je Berlin-Stunde (beide Hälften) — welche Stunden tragen echt? (2) Gate-Politiken: kein Gate vs. Nacht-Blackout 0–7 vs. 0–7+12 — beide Hälften. (3) breakout_k 0,3/0,5/1,0 mit echten Kosten (Kosten am Bestätigungs-Bar). """ import sys, datetime as dt from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo import MetaTrader5 as mt5 from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle from core.wave_rec import (_EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW, _N_BARS, _ANGLE_LR, _ANGLE_DEAD, _REVERSAL_STRETCH, _STRETCH_MAX) _MAXH=200; _TRAILON=0.3; _TPTRAIL=0.5; _ATRMIN=0.12; _SL_ATR=2.0; _CONFIRM_W=12 _BROKER_OFF=3*3600; _BERLIN=ZoneInfo("Europe/Berlin") def _ema_series(v,p): k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0] for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e) return o def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14): t=[0.0] for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1]))) return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))] def simulate(entry,d,atr,sl,H,L,C,j0): eff=sl; hw=entry; trail=False end=min(j0+_MAXH,len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end] for j in range(j0,end+1): hi,lo=H[j],L[j] if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): return (eff-entry)*d/atr hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo) if (C[j]-entry)*d>=_TRAILON*atr: trail=True if trail: lock=hw-d*_TPTRAIL*atr eff=max(eff,lock) if d>0 else min(eff,lock) return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr def bhour(raw): return dt.datetime.fromtimestamp(int(raw)-_BROKER_OFF,tz=dt.timezone.utc).astimezone(_BERLIN).hour def main(): n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 80000 mt5.initialize(); sym=None for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"): if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break si=mt5.symbol_info(sym); point=si.point bars=None for req in (n,80000,60000,40000): bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,req) if bars is not None and len(bars)>2000: break mt5.shutdown() H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars]; L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars] C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars]; T=[int(b["time"]) for b in bars] SP=[float(b["spread"])*point for b in bars] # echter Spread je Bar EF=_ema_series(C,_EMA_FAST); ES=_ema_series(C,_EMA_SLOW); AT=_atr_series(H,L,C) mid=len(C)//2; TH=_REVERSAL_STRETCH def cost(i,atr): return (SP[i] if SP[i]>0 else 0.0225)/atr # in R def collect(a,b): out=[] for i in range(max(a,_N_BARS), min(b,len(C)-_MAXH-1)): atr=AT[i] if not atr or atr<=0: continue atr=max(atr,_ATRMIN); es=ES[i]; ef=EF[i] stretch=(C[i]-es)/atr ang=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR); ad=ang-90.0 d=0 if stretch<=-TH and ad>=_ANGLE_DEAD: d=1 elif stretch>=TH and ad<=-_ANGLE_DEAD: d=-1 elif abs(stretch)<_STRETCH_MAX: d=1 if ef>es else -1 if ef3} {'H1 netto':>10} {'H2 netto':>10} beide negativ?") night_neg=[] for h in range(24): cells=[]; neg=True for lbl,_,_ in halves: v=[x[4] for x in EV[lbl] if x[3]==h] m=sum(v)/len(v) if v else 0.0 cells.append(f"{m:+.3f}(n{len(v)})") if m>=0: neg=False if neg: night_neg.append(h) print(f" {h:>3} {cells[0]:>12} {cells[1]:>12} {'← NEG in beiden' if neg else ''}") print(f" → in BEIDEN Hälften netto negativ: {night_neg}") # (2) Gate-Politiken print("\n(2) Gesamt-Netto-R je Politik:") POL=[("Kein Gate",set()),("Nacht 0–7",set(range(0,8))), ("Nacht 0–7 + 12",set(range(0,8))|{12}), ("nur robust-negative",set(night_neg))] for name,blk in POL: cells=[] for lbl,_,_ in halves: kept=[x[4] for x in EV[lbl] if x[3] not in blk] cells.append(f"ΣR{sum(kept):+8.0f} (n{len(kept)})") print(f" {name:<22} {cells[0]:>24} {cells[1]:>24}") # (3) breakout_k mit echten Kosten print("\n(3) breakout_k mit echten Kosten (Kosten am Bestätigungs-Bar):") for lbl,a,b in halves: sigs=[(i,d,atr) for (i,d,atr,_,_) in EV[lbl]] line=f" {lbl}: " for k in (0.3,0.5,1.0): Rs=[] for (i,d,atr) in sigs: e0=C[i]; level=e0+d*k*atr; invalid=e0-d*k*atr; je=None for j in range(i+1, min(i+1+_CONFIRM_W, len(C)-_MAXH-1)): if d>0: if L[j]<=invalid: break if H[j]>=level: je=j; break else: if H[j]>=invalid: break if L[j]<=level: je=j; break if je is None: continue Rs.append(simulate(level,d,atr,level-d*_SL_ATR*atr,H,L,C,je+1)-cost(je,atr)) line+=f"k={k}: ΣR{sum(Rs):+7.0f}(n{len(Rs)},Ø{sum(Rs)/max(1,len(Rs)):+.3f}) " print(line) if __name__=="__main__": main()