#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Gezielter Test: Konfidenz-STRAFE wenn der M30/H1-Regressionswinkel scharf GEGEN die Signalrichtung steht (= Markt dreht, aber EMA lagt → falsche 'Konfluenz'). Borderline-Signale fallen dann unter das 55%-Gate (→WARTEN). Kein Pauschal-Filter. Frage: Sind die so ENTFERNTEN Signale netto negativ (gut weg) und bleibt der Gesamtertrag der behaltenen ≥ Baseline? Exit-Sim = SL 2,0×ATR + Trailing 1,5 (live). """ import sys, bisect import MetaTrader5 as mt5 from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle from core.wave_rec import (WaveRecommender, _atr, _ema_last, _EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW, _N_BARS, _HTF_DEADBAND, _ANGLE_LR, _MIN_CONF) _MAXH=288; _ATRMIN=0.12 def _ema_series(v,p): k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0] for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e) return o def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14): t=[0.0] for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1]))) return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))] def sim(entry,d,atr,H,L,C,j0, sl_atr=2.0, trail=1.5, trail_on=0.3, be_on=1.0): eff=entry-d*sl_atr*atr; hw=entry end=min(j0+_MAXH,len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end] for j in range(j0,end+1): hi,lo=H[j],L[j] if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): exit_px=eff; break hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo) prof=(C[j]-entry)*d if prof>=trail_on*atr: cand=hw-d*trail*atr if prof>=be_on*atr: cand=max(cand,entry) if d>0 else min(cand,entry) eff=max(eff,cand) if d>0 else min(eff,cand) return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr def srep(name,r): if not r: print(f" {name:<34} -"); return n=len(r); w=sum(1 for x in r if x>0) print(f" {name:<34} n={n:>5} Treffer={100*w/n:>3.0f}% ØR={sum(r)/n:+.3f} ΣR={sum(r):+.0f}") def main(): n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 40000 mt5.initialize() sym=None for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"): if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,n+_N_BARS+_MAXH+5) m30=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M30,0,n//6+500) h1=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_H1,0,n//12+500) mt5.shutdown() T=[int(b["time"]) for b in bars]; H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars] L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars]; C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars] mT=[int(b["time"]) for b in m30]; mc=[float(b["close"]) for b in m30] mh=[float(b["high"]) for b in m30]; ml=[float(b["low"]) for b in m30] mEf=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_FAST); mEs=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_SLOW); mA=_atr_series(mh,ml,mc) hT=[int(b["time"]) for b in h1]; hc=[float(b["close"]) for b in h1] def m30sign(ts): idx=bisect.bisect_right(mT,ts)-1 if idx<_EMA_SLOW or mA[idx] is None or mA[idx]<=0: return 0 dd=mEf[idx]-mEs[idx] return 0 if abs(dd)<_HTF_DEADBAND*mA[idx] else (1 if dd>0 else -1) def ang_at(ts,TT,CC): idx=bisect.bisect_right(TT,ts)-1 if idx<_ANGLE_LR+2: return 90.0 return calc_trend_angle(CC[idx-_ANGLE_LR-1:idx+1],_ANGLE_LR) class _TU: def snapshot(self): return {"intervals": {}} w=WaveRecommender(_TU(), mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5) sigs=[] # (i,d,atr,conf,R,m30dev,h1dev) for i in range(_N_BARS, len(C)-_MAXH-1): wc=C[i-_N_BARS:i]; wh=H[i-_N_BARS:i]; wl=L[i-_N_BARS:i] atr=_atr(wh,wl,wc) if not atr or atr<=0: continue ef=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_FAST); es=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_SLOW) a5=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR) rec,_=w._build(ef,es,C[i-1],atr,"M5",0,htf_trend=m30sign(T[i]), h1_trend=0,angle=a5) if rec["signal"]=="WARTEN": continue d=1 if rec["signal"]=="LONG" else -1 atr=max(atr,_ATRMIN) R=sim(C[i],d,atr,H,L,C,i+1) sigs.append((d,rec["conf_pct"],R,ang_at(T[i],mT,mc)-90.0,ang_at(T[i],hT,hc)-90.0)) base=[R for (_,_,R,_,_) in sigs] print("="*80) print(f" Konfluenz-Winkel-Strafe — {sym} M5 Signale={len(sigs)} Exit SL2.0+Trail1.5") print("="*80) srep("BASELINE (alle Signale)", base) print(" (Strafe greift, wenn M30- ODER H1-Winkel um >T gegen die Richtung steht)\n") for T_ in (10, 20, 40): def opp(d,m,h): return ((d<0 and (m>T_ or h>T_)) or (d>0 and (m<-T_ or h<-T_))) for P in (15, 25): kept=[]; removed=[] for (d,conf,R,m,h) in sigs: if opp(d,m,h) and (conf - P) < _MIN_CONF: removed.append(R) else: kept.append(R) print(f"T={T_}° Strafe={P}:") srep(" entfernt (→WARTEN)", removed) srep(" behalten (gehandelt)", kept) db=sum(kept)-sum(base) print(f" Δ Gesamtertrag vs Baseline: {db:+.0f} R ({'BESSER' if db>0 else 'schlechter'})" f" · behalten {len(kept)}/{len(sigs)}\n") if __name__=="__main__": main()