#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Exit-Refactoring: dreht eine andere Exit-Logik die VERLUST-ASYMMETRIE um? Live-Problem (real gemessen): WR 59%, aber Ø-Gewinn nur ~0,47× Ø-Verlust → PF 0,68. Ursache: enges Trailing-TP (HW−0,5×ATR) kappt Gewinner, fixer 2×ATR-SL lässt Verlierer voll laufen → kleine Gewinne, große Verluste. Hier: gleiche Signale, verschiedene Exit-Modelle. Kennzahl = avg_win / avg_loss (>=1 = Schiefe gedreht) + ΣR/PF. Trailing-STOP-Distanz und Initial-SL variiert. Pessimistisch (Gegenlauf vor Mitlauf). """ import sys import MetaTrader5 as mt5 from core.analysis import calc_trend_angle from core.wave_rec import (WaveRecommender, _atr, _ema_last, _EMA_FAST, _EMA_SLOW, _N_BARS, _HTF_DEADBAND, _ANGLE_LR) _MAXH = 288; _ATRMIN = 0.12 def _ema_series(v,p): k=2.0/(p+1); o=[]; e=v[0] for i,x in enumerate(v): e=x if i==0 else x*k+e*(1-k); o.append(e) return o def _atr_series(H,L,C,p=14): t=[0.0] for i in range(1,len(C)): t.append(max(H[i]-L[i],abs(H[i]-C[i-1]),abs(L[i]-C[i-1]))) return [(sum(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1])/max(1,len(t[max(1,i-p+1):i+1]))) if i else None for i in range(len(C))] def sim(entry,d,atr,H,L,C,j0, sl_atr, trail, trail_on=0.3, be_on=1.0, tp_atr=None): """Trailing-STOP-Modell: Initial-SL sl_atr; ab trail_on Profit Stop = HW∓trail×ATR (Breakeven-Floor ab be_on). Optionaler harter TP. Rückgabe R.""" eff = entry - d*sl_atr*atr hw = entry tp = (entry + d*tp_atr*atr) if tp_atr else None end=min(j0+_MAXH, len(C)-1); exit_px=C[end] for j in range(j0,end+1): hi,lo=H[j],L[j] # Gegenlauf zuerst (Stop) if (lo<=eff) if d>0 else (hi>=eff): exit_px=eff; break # harter TP if tp is not None and ((hi>=tp) if d>0 else (lo<=tp)): exit_px=tp; break hw=max(hw,hi) if d>0 else min(hw,lo) prof=(C[j]-entry)*d if trail and prof>=trail_on*atr: cand=hw-d*trail*atr if prof>=be_on*atr: cand=max(cand,entry) if d>0 else min(cand,entry) eff=max(eff,cand) if d>0 else min(eff,cand) return (exit_px-entry)*d/atr def stats(name, Rs): if not Rs: print(f" {name:<26} -"); return n=len(Rs); wins=[r for r in Rs if r>0]; loss=[r for r in Rs if r<=0] aw=sum(wins)/len(wins) if wins else 0; al=sum(loss)/len(loss) if loss else 0 ratio=(aw/abs(al)) if al<0 else 99 g=sum(wins); ls=-sum(loss); pf=g/ls if ls>0 else 99 print(f" {name:<26} n={n:>4} WR={100*len(wins)/n:>3.0f}% Øgew={aw:+.2f} Øverl={al:+.2f} " f"Verh={ratio:>4.2f} ØR={sum(Rs)/n:+.3f} PF={pf:>4.2f} ΣR={sum(Rs):+.0f} Worst={min(Rs):+.1f}") def main(): n=int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv)>1 else 40000 mt5.initialize() sym=None for c in ("SpotCrude","USOIL","WTI","XTIUSD"): if mt5.symbol_info(c): sym=c; break bars=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5,0,n+_N_BARS+_MAXH+5) m30=mt5.copy_rates_from_pos(sym,mt5.TIMEFRAME_M30,0,n//6+500) mt5.shutdown() T=[int(b["time"]) for b in bars]; H=[float(b["high"]) for b in bars] L=[float(b["low"]) for b in bars]; C=[float(b["close"]) for b in bars] mT=[int(b["time"]) for b in m30]; mc=[float(b["close"]) for b in m30] mh=[float(b["high"]) for b in m30]; ml=[float(b["low"]) for b in m30] mEf=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_FAST); mEs=_ema_series(mc,_EMA_SLOW); mA=_atr_series(mh,ml,mc) import bisect def m30s(ts): idx=bisect.bisect_right(mT,ts)-1 if idx<_EMA_SLOW or mA[idx] is None or mA[idx]<=0: return 0 dd=mEf[idx]-mEs[idx] return 0 if abs(dd)<_HTF_DEADBAND*mA[idx] else (1 if dd>0 else -1) class _TU: def snapshot(self): return {"intervals": {}} w=WaveRecommender(_TU(), mt5.TIMEFRAME_M5) sigs=[] for i in range(_N_BARS, len(C)-_MAXH-1): wc=C[i-_N_BARS:i]; wh=H[i-_N_BARS:i]; wl=L[i-_N_BARS:i] atr=_atr(wh,wl,wc) if not atr or atr<=0: continue ef=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_FAST); es=_ema_last(wc,_EMA_SLOW) a5=calc_trend_angle(C[i-_ANGLE_LR-2:i],_ANGLE_LR) rec,_=w._build(ef,es,C[i-1],atr,"M5",0,htf_trend=m30s(T[i]),angle=a5) if rec["signal"]=="WARTEN": continue d=1 if rec["signal"]=="LONG" else -1 sigs.append((i,d,max(atr,_ATRMIN))) print("="*112) print(f" Exit-Refactoring — {sym} M5 Signale={len(sigs)} (Ziel: Verh = Øgew/Øverl ≥ 1)") print("="*112) def run(name,**kw): Rs=[sim(C[i],d,atr,H,L,C,i+1,**kw) for (i,d,atr) in sigs] stats(name,Rs) print("AKTUELL (Problem):") run("SL2.0 + Trail 0.5 (live)", sl_atr=2.0, trail=0.5, be_on=1.0) print("\nGewinner laufen lassen (weiteres Trailing):") run("SL2.0 + Trail 1.0", sl_atr=2.0, trail=1.0, be_on=1.0) run("SL2.0 + Trail 1.5", sl_atr=2.0, trail=1.5, be_on=1.0) run("SL2.0 + Trail 2.0", sl_atr=2.0, trail=2.0, be_on=1.0) print("\nVerlierer enger cutten (kleinerer Initial-SL) + Trailing 1.5:") run("SL1.0 + Trail 1.5", sl_atr=1.0, trail=1.5, be_on=0.8) run("SL1.2 + Trail 1.5", sl_atr=1.2, trail=1.5, be_on=0.8) run("SL1.5 + Trail 1.5", sl_atr=1.5, trail=1.5, be_on=1.0) print("\nFeste R:R-Ziele (TP erzwingt Symmetrie):") run("SL1.5 + TP2.25 (RR1.5)", sl_atr=1.5, trail=None, tp_atr=2.25) run("SL1.5 + TP3.0 (RR2.0)", sl_atr=1.5, trail=None, tp_atr=3.0) run("SL2.0 + TP4.0 (RR2.0)", sl_atr=2.0, trail=None, tp_atr=4.0) if __name__=="__main__": main()